Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2025 06:16PM UTC
(6 months ago)
May 30, 2025 06:16PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 35% | 67% | -32% | +4% |
| 30 days | 25% | 6% | +19% | -3% |
| 31-60 days | 25% | 6% | +19% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 5% | 16% | -11% | +1% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2025 05:39PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 12, 2025 05:39PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | -12% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +12% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2025 05:46PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 03, 2025 05:46PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 11% | +7% | -3% |
| No | 82% | 89% | -7% | +3% |