Review Question
Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0% |
Author
Description
This question will be resolved using open-source media reporting. For the purposes of this question:
- “Taking possession” would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of an island by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 consecutive hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Control will be determined using reputable news media reporting (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).
- “Chinese security or paramilitary forces” includes both the People’s Liberation Army and any paramilitary associated with the People's Republic of China (e.g., the Maritime Militia).
- "Islands considered currently under the control of Taiwan" include the island groups of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, as well as other islands in the South China Sea. It does not include disputed islands claimed by Taiwan but not under Taiwanese control (e.g., the Senkaku Islands and some of the Spratly Islands).
Additional reading:
Starts
Apr 21, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closes
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Topics
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Geopolitical Security
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In the example article linked ("Maritime Militia"), the paramilitary organization is not recognized by the Chinese government, but is understood to be at the very least working to enforce PRC territorial claims (some claim it is the covert third sea force of the People's Liberation Army). Situations like these would be counted, but if there is an attack by unknown forces, then that would not.