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Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?
Closed Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).
The signing of an official agreement between one or more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area.
Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.
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Question clarification
Clarification from our friends across the Atlantic: "The Pacific Ocean is defined by the International Hydrographic Organisation boundaries. A military base would have to be entirely under Chinese control. The military base would be an overtly flagged People's Liberation Army infrastructure to support any aspect of traditional or hybrid warfare, including cyber."
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 13.26% | |
No | 86.74% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 108 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 395 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 224 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |