Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
1
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 256 | 0 | 2946 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 172 | 0 | 1628 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 243 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 208 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2026 11:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Starting out again.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2026 11:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Starting out again.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+3%)
Yes
95%
(-3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moderating probability for 'No' a bit. I have also seen the news highlighted by @geoffodlum about the development of a Russian anti-satellite weapon. However, I don't think I am not confident about a 2026 deployment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may underestimate development timelines and Russia's overall willingness to disrupt.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating after two months. Some interesting background articles:
Files
Why might you be wrong?
/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Estonia
2%
(+1%)
Latvia
2%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting slightly upward.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may underestimate Russia's capacity to wage war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Closing out on deadline.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting slightly.
Why might you be wrong?
.