Adjusting slightly to add +2 to the first option.
-0.410625
Relative Brier Score
846
Forecasts
87
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 288 | 257 | 2925 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 181 | 164 | 1609 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 56 | 46 | 243 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 207 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
14%
(-1%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
77%
(-1%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
X
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Joining the question late considering the act of war argument as substantial inhibitor besides the other good arguments presented by my fellow forecasters.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
X
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Starting out on the fence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
X
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Starting late. I'm a bit surprised why it should be a tax incentive but maybe that's just driven by my continental European perspective.
While I can see the logic behind tax incentives for cybersecurity audits, it does not make much sense for AI models specifically in my eyes. You would need to determine security standards and the details of the audit. It is one thing to have guidelines and another to agree on a more strict regime.
If risks turn out to be that major, I could imagine that certain model providers will be forced to have an audit by law. If risks do not turn out as major, I'm not sure we will see anything more than guidelines or agreed upon minimum standards.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There seems to be development on both sides of the Atlantic and the time frame is quite generous. AI models are currently very potent for some tasks, they may evolve even further over the coming years necessitating stricter rules and regulations - and yes, this may even include tax incentives.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 2, 2025 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 2, 2025 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 2, 2025 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 2, 2025 to May 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting slightly.
Why might you be wrong?
X