Plataea479
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
90% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
10% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/20/russia-ukraine-truce-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news/

I believe this is a Potemkin Village. cease fire. In the late 18nth century Potemkin would put up fake villages with happy people so that she did not see the shameful poverty of her new Imperial possessions in what is now Ukraine. The grinding poverty of her serfs.

Just like Putin to the Russian people today

This is about as cynical and deceitful act as Putin has committed on his road of war crimes in Chechnya Aleppo Syria and now Ukraine. It may qualify under the technical FAQ for this issue.

From Telegraph 

Russia said Ukraine had broken the Easter ceasefire “more than a thousand times”.

The Russian defence ministry said that Ukrainian forces had shot at Russian positions 444 times while it had counted more than 900 Ukrainian drone attacks.

The comments came hours after Volodymyr Zelensky also accused Russia of breaking the truce.

The Ukrainian president said that Russia had fired 290 drones and launched 19 assaults at Ukraine during the first six hours of the ceasefire.


“Overall, as of Easter morning, we can state that the Russian army is attempting to create the general impression of a ceasefire, while in some areas still continuing isolated attempts to advance and inflict losses on Ukraine,” Mr Zelensky said.



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Why might you be wrong?

My opinion is that there may be no resolution of the Ukraine war as long as Vladimir Putin lives.

It may wax and wane in intensity.

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DimaKlenchin
made a comment:

It's completely unambiguous fact that both sides broke the ceasefire endlessly the very moment it was "agreed" upon.

Oh, and by the way: Potemkin villages are a total myth. Nothing remotely on that scale ever happened. It's a nice vehicle to convey the pervasive deceitful behavior in the Russian and USSR empires but it just never happened.

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Plataea479
made a comment:

It is great shorthand but the weight of authority is it never happened.

Potemkin is a seminal Imperial figure for Putin. During the retreat from Kherson City Putin ordered that Potemkins remains be removed from Kherson Cathedral and carried east  over the Dnipro with the retreating Russian troops.



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