• There have been three direct kinetic strikes by the U.S. military against Iran or Iranian government assets since 1975. That’s a base rate of ~17% but that’s probably too low given current escalatory context and the fact that one of those kinetic strikes occurred during the last Trump term (assassination of Soleimani in 2020).
• There have been numerous U.S. airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, but these do not count as direct strikes on Iran itself or Iranian government assets.
• Current official US policy is for the American military to use defensive strikes to take out incoming Iranian missiles to protect Israel, not to take any offensive actions against Iran.
• Trump says that he does not want to be militarily involved in Middle East conflict. I think he’d rather let Israel keep striking Iran.
• A US kinetic strike on Iran would invite retaliatory attacks against US forces and assets; a slippery slope that Trump does not want.
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Why might you be wrong?
• The Trump Administration might decide that diplomacy has failed to curb Iranian nuclear aspirations and US military action to destroy the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant in Iran is the only way to ensure peace between Israel and Iran.
Why do you think you're right?
• There have been three direct kinetic strikes by the U.S. military against Iran or Iranian government assets since 1975. That’s a base rate of ~17% but that’s probably too low given current escalatory context and the fact that one of those kinetic strikes occurred during the last Trump term (assassination of Soleimani in 2020).
• There have been numerous U.S. airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, but these do not count as direct strikes on Iran itself or Iranian government assets.
• Current official US policy is for the American military to use defensive strikes to take out incoming Iranian missiles to protect Israel, not to take any offensive actions against Iran.
• Trump says that he does not want to be militarily involved in Middle East conflict. I think he’d rather let Israel keep striking Iran.
• A US kinetic strike on Iran would invite retaliatory attacks against US forces and assets; a slippery slope that Trump does not want.
Why might you be wrong?
• The Trump Administration might decide that diplomacy has failed to curb Iranian nuclear aspirations and US military action to destroy the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant in Iran is the only way to ensure peace between Israel and Iran.