January-June: 1,789,582 acres burned. Currently at 2,146,471 (+356,889) after 9-10 days (30% of month). This projects out to about 1.19 million acres if continued at the same rate.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
More personnel deployed to Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern California. Potential for a big fire to burn a lot of acres later in the month.
Super useful to have this info on daily changes in acreage burned in July... quick question... have you confirmed that your daily data adds up to the monthly data totals (i.e. for June or May this year) without much post-dated revising later on?
Not sure about post-dated revisions, but as of now YTD value on June 29 daily data (link) is very consistent with the January-June YTD value on NOAA monthly wildfires report (within 0.005%). My hunch is retroactive revisions will not be as big of a concern with this data since it's updated daily (I think based off satellite imagery), but I could be wrong and am not very familiar with fires. In any case, NOAA reported the June value within a week after the end of the month, so assuming that the question will resolve by the first week of August.
This is awesome, thanks for all this info and for the updates over time as these new data come out... this is the type of info that I think is the most useful for these forecasting Qs!
@khaz thank you. I take the daily reading from the link I included above, but it is not timestamped, so good to know that it is released on 07:30 MDT, so essentially not including the largest part of the last day (although I think that this does not affect our resolution data - see below).
@doodlebug That's a great question and, as it happened, I was investigating this exact issue earlier today. Turns out that the cumulative number (January - July) in our resolution source for 2024 & 2023 is identical to the archived NIFC reports for July 31, 2024 and July 31, 2023, respectively, down to the single acre (volunteers for more checks are always welcome, of course 😉).
This strongly suggests that the final number we'll get for July (which will be used for resolution) will actually come from the daily report of July 31, 2025 - despite the fact that, as mentioned above, that report is released in the morning hours of the day, and technically it will not include the whole of July 31 day (such is their reporting system, it would seem). And if one thinks that one single (July...) day cannot be a big deal, one may be interested to learn that the single day difference between July 30 and July 31, 2024 was no less than ~201,000 acres...!
Why do you think you're right?
Only 18,000 acres burned last night.
January-June: 1,789,582 acres burned. Currently at 2,146,471 (+356,889) after 9-10 days (30% of month). This projects out to about 1.19 million acres if continued at the same rate.
Why might you be wrong?
More personnel deployed to Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern California. Potential for a big fire to burn a lot of acres later in the month.
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/sitreprt.pdf, p. 10
@khaz thank you. I take the daily reading from the link I included above, but it is not timestamped, so good to know that it is released on 07:30 MDT, so essentially not including the largest part of the last day (although I think that this does not affect our resolution data - see below).
@doodlebug That's a great question and, as it happened, I was investigating this exact issue earlier today. Turns out that the cumulative number (January - July) in our resolution source for 2024 & 2023 is identical to the archived NIFC reports for July 31, 2024 and July 31, 2023, respectively, down to the single acre (volunteers for more checks are always welcome, of course 😉).
This strongly suggests that the final number we'll get for July (which will be used for resolution) will actually come from the daily report of July 31, 2025 - despite the fact that, as mentioned above, that report is released in the morning hours of the day, and technically it will not include the whole of July 31 day (such is their reporting system, it would seem). And if one thinks that one single (July...) day cannot be a big deal, one may be interested to learn that the single day difference between July 30 and July 31, 2024 was no less than ~201,000 acres...!