-0.109109
Relative Brier Score
200
Forecasts
43
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 217 | 217 | 217 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Definitions | |||||
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Why do you think you're right?
March 31 is coming fairly soon... not impossible but unlikely given how little groundwork has been laid for approval at FDA, how long approval process takes, and how FDA approval isn't needed for many health-related uses of LLMs. There is still a chance that FDA could approve a medical device built around a core non-LLM functionality that also uses an LLM in a supporting role (arguably the Innolitics example given in the question description fits this description), which probably would count as per the resolution criteria here.
FDA advisory committee meeting happening today (Thur 11/6) will shed a bit of light on regulation of LLM-based mental health chatbots at least. Transcript and more info likely to be released in the next couple days after the meeting. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/november-6-2025-digital-health-advisory-committee-meeting-announcement-11062025
https://www.statnews.com/2025/11/05/fda-digital-advisers-therapy-chatbots-regulating-generative-ai/
Why might you be wrong?
Something in the works that I'm not aware of, or announcement that LLMs can be incorporated in supporting role within a medical device and approved via the less stringent 510(k) process intended for new devices substantially equivalent to an already approved device.
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Time passing no event yet
Why might you be wrong?
not following news
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with passage of time, and after reading crowd assessments
Why might you be wrong?
Lots of uncertainty