24th
Accuracy Rank

doodlebug

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-0.109109

Relative Brier Score

200

Forecasts

43

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 3 200 200 200
Comments 0 2 217 217 217
Questions Forecasted 0 2 22 22 22
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 43 43 43
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Russia-Europe

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Top Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Why do you think you're right?

Updating with passage of time, and after reading crowd assessments

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Why might you be wrong?

Lots of uncertainty

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Active Forecaster

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March 31 is coming fairly soon... not impossible but unlikely given how little groundwork has been laid for approval at FDA, how long approval process takes, and how FDA approval isn't needed for many health-related uses of LLMs. There is still a chance that FDA could approve a medical device built around a core non-LLM functionality that also uses an LLM in a supporting role (arguably the Innolitics example given in the question description fits this description), which probably would count as per the resolution criteria here.


FDA advisory committee meeting happening today (Thur 11/6) will shed a bit of light on regulation of LLM-based mental health chatbots at least. Transcript and more info likely to be released in the next couple days after the meeting. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/november-6-2025-digital-health-advisory-committee-meeting-announcement-11062025

https://www.statnews.com/2025/11/05/fda-digital-advisers-therapy-chatbots-regulating-generative-ai/

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Why might you be wrong?

Something in the works that I'm not aware of, or announcement that LLMs can be incorporated in supporting role within a medical device and approved via the less stringent 510(k) process intended for new devices substantially equivalent to an already approved device.

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Top Forecaster - Oct 2025

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Star Commenter - Sep 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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Why do you think you're right?

Time passing no event yet

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Why might you be wrong?

not following news

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