The US reading for Q2 has just been revised upwards to 71.8 (from 71.7 previously).
Compared to their Q1 reading at 71.9, and given that the US is in the ballpark of ~40% of the OECD, the previous Q2 reading (at 71.7) was my main point of concern for a possible drop in the OECD aggregate in Q2; I can now predict with moderate-to-high confidence that the OECD Q2 reading will be in the range 70.2 - 70.3, i.e. without significant change from Q1 (moving up to 70.4 is also far from unimaginable).
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The August readings for US & Canada (part of Q3) also just came in (our resolution source has stopped offering monthly readings, but we can see them in their data explorer).
Canada, at 73.8, continues its steady trend down from 74.7 in 2024.
US is at 71.6, same with the July reading, and slightly down from May & June (at 71.7).
Why do you think you're right?
The US reading for Q2 has just been revised upwards to 71.8 (from 71.7 previously).
Compared to their Q1 reading at 71.9, and given that the US is in the ballpark of ~40% of the OECD, the previous Q2 reading (at 71.7) was my main point of concern for a possible drop in the OECD aggregate in Q2; I can now predict with moderate-to-high confidence that the OECD Q2 reading will be in the range 70.2 - 70.3, i.e. without significant change from Q1 (moving up to 70.4 is also far from unimaginable).
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The August readings for US & Canada (part of Q3) also just came in (our resolution source has stopped offering monthly readings, but we can see them in their data explorer).
Canada, at 73.8, continues its steady trend down from 74.7 in 2024.
US is at 71.6, same with the July reading, and slightly down from May & June (at 71.7).
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
Why might you be wrong?
As before