F83
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
80% (+33%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
20% (-30%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0% (-2%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?

As of September 9, 1454 cases, 5 or less cases per week over the last two weeks and trending down 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

It will be close, a single outbreak could tip total over 1500

Files
ctsats
made a comment:

5 or less cases per week over the last two weeks

More like ~26 cases per week in the last 3 weeks, actually: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/199046

Plus at least +15 cases from Utah not yet counted by the CDC: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/199201

Files
F83
made a comment:
Thanks for flagging! Taking onboard for my update today
Files
ctsats
made a comment:
You are very welcome.
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username