Confirmed previous forecast
-0.154822
Relative Brier Score
98
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
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Top Forecaster - Dec 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
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Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
As of September 9, 1454 cases, 5 or less cases per week over the last two weeks and trending down
Why might you be wrong?
It will be close, a single outbreak could tip total over 1500