The OECD Q2 reading was just revised lower at 70.3, but downloading the actual data from the data explorer unsurprisingly reveals that again this is due to rounding: the actual revision was from 70.35221 before (rounded to 70.4) to 70.3489 now (rounded to 70.3).
We also have the first Q3 reading - Canada at 74.0 (data explorer). It confirms the downward trend for Canada, but the monthly readings seem to have reversed the latest trend (see detailed table below). We would have the US Q3 reading by now, too, were it not for the government shutdown.
Why do you think you're right?
The OECD Q2 reading was just revised lower at 70.3, but downloading the actual data from the data explorer unsurprisingly reveals that again this is due to rounding: the actual revision was from 70.35221 before (rounded to 70.4) to 70.3489 now (rounded to 70.3).
We also have the first Q3 reading - Canada at 74.0 (data explorer). It confirms the downward trend for Canada, but the monthly readings seem to have reversed the latest trend (see detailed table below). We would have the US Q3 reading by now, too, were it not for the government shutdown.
As I have explained in more detail below:
And according to the first results for Q3 (which has already ended), this does not seem to be the situation so far; here is the current summary:
*calculated as the average of Q1 & Q2
**difference between H1-2025 & 2024
Why might you be wrong?
Big data revisions downwards and big worsening of the situation in September and Q4.