There are already several interesting comments and rationales below, but a key angle seems to me to have been largely missed so far, save for a comment by @MrLittleTexas and the rationale of @efosong, so I'll cut straight through the chase:
What is the current (and expected future) availability of C2PA-compliant cameras?
The first (although seemingly outdated) impression from Wikipedia says - practically non-existent:
Available C2PA-compliant systems
Version 1.0 of the C2PA standard specification was published in January 2022. Products that support this standard exist in very small numbers as of August 2022. [...] Cameras or camera apps that can store C2PA-compliant metadata are not yet available. Internet sites that offer content with C2PA metadata currently exist only as part of experimental test projects.
(Arguably, a Wikipedia page for a project that has not been updated since August 2022 does not exactly imply a project in the verge of conquering the media in the way described by the question here...)
A google search for "c2pa cameras" returns a remarkably poor amount of results, most of which are about:
Leica, who in an undated page report that "The first Leica cameras with the C2PA standard are planned for release in 2023" (we are in mid-2023 with no further news or updates)
Nikon, who exhibited a relevant feature in their Z9 model in October 2022; nevertheless (emphasis mine):
Nikon stated that the purpose of the exhibition was to announce that the image provenance function is currently under development. The use of the Nikon Z9 at this exhibition does not imply or suggest that this model will be equipped with this feature in the future.
Indeed, a search in Nikon Z9 reviews and in the product's Amazon page fail to reveal any feature related to C2PA, CAI, provenance, or security.
And that would seem to be all, i.e. practically nothing...
Which seems to leave us to mobile phone cameras & apps only.
Here, everything I could find seems to be centered around a single company, namely Truepic. [see Update #1 below]
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Truepic is a core ("steering committee") member of the C2PA coalition. IEEE Spectrum hosts a long interview of their VP of technology, Nick Brown, given last February (I would recommend skimming through it, or even reading it in full), where he describes the whole idea and the present status of the company and the related technology in enough detail.
The only Truepic app currently registered in the Apple store is Vision Camera (I could not find anything else for Android either), which, according to my iPhone, "hasn't received enough ratings or reviews to display a summary". It looks like something for the niche areas of insurance claims and underwriting. To the best of my knowledge and research so far, this currently seems to be the only off-the-self app [nope, see Update #1 below] to capture C2PA-compliance photos (although I may be very well missing something - inputs welcome), and it does not currently support videos.
It would seem that the main way Truepic are trying to monetize their C2PA-compliant tech is not through apps they build themselves, but through a software development kit (SDK), which they sell/license to developers, who in turn will be able to integrate the technology to their own apps, so that these apps will be able to use mobile phone cameras to capture C2PA-compliant footage. The SDK product, Truepic Lens, was mentioned byTime as one of the best inventions of 2022. Here's their VP from the interview I linked to above, explaining:
The specific verified capture mechanism that we have, so this secure capture that does secure capture all the way through signing, all the way through display, and the like, that is a SDK and a corresponding API that we have, that Truepic has, and that is a commercially available product that anybody can use. [...] So it’s kind of like the infrastructure of what C2PA requires to be implemented. We provide tools for all of those, one of those being a Truepic SDK or capture mechanism that allows you to take trustworthy photos from the start. [...] So we have our mobile application that has it injected into it, but others can do the exact same thing, and other companies are doing the same thing. So if you see a camera inside of their app, it would actually be the Truepic camera running in the background, even if you don’t know it’s the Truepic camera.
Taking in all these, and trying to think and assess them in the context of a question roughly asking if this tech will go mainstream in the next 12 months, here are my concerns about the Truepic SDK:
It is addressed to developers, and not to end users
It is a commercial product, i.e. developers and other companies need to pay in order to use it (pricing info comes only upon request, and it is not publicly available)
It comes from a single company, with currently no competitors
Now, I am certainly not an expert on how technologies are adopted and spread and become mainstream and change the status-quo, but from the little I know (or I think I know), the above does not sound exactly like a recipe for a technology that is ready to go mainstream in the degree requested for a YES here...
Are there open source alternatives?
Turns out, the Content Authenticity Initiative (CAI), a precursor to C2PA that seems to still exist autonomously inside the latter, has been developing an open source Rust SDK - but it is still in beta, with their Github repo having received a mere 42 stars so far in its ~1 year of existence, again indicating rather (very) low adoption and interest...
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It is quite likely that I may be missing something big or significant in the above; but assuming for a moment that I have not, and that the present situation is more or less as I have described, then I really fail to imagine how this could be resolved as Yes, solely due to the actual lack of C2PA-compliant cameras, which does not seem posed to change dramatically in the next 12 months - while it would need to change dramatically for the question to be resolved positively...
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Let's face it: the news outlets mentioned here do not actually have either a need or an incentive to demand C2PA compliance for content they produce themselves, i.e. content produced by their own reporting staff. At best, I could imagine something like the following fictional/hypothetical announcement by, say, the BBC:
From May 1, 2024, image and video content that has not been produced internally by BBC staff, but reaches us having been generated by third parties (external sources, citizen journalists, whistleblowers etc), will not be published or be considered for publication in any of our platforms, unless it fully complies with the C2PA standard.
(which, BTW, may imply a potentially more appropriate version of our question here - just sayin'...)
But still, even this would require a wide-enough availability of C2PA-compliant capturing equipment, which is certainly not present now, and it does not seem likely to be present in a 12-month time horizon.
So, I will start with a nominal 10%, although if the picture I have described above is even approximately correct, this may be already too high.
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Feedback and inputs, complementing and especially contradicting what I have written here, is actively sought and it will be highly appreciated (good forecasting is a team sport, almost by definition).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am missing something big and currently invisible, either because it is indeed invisible (stealth mode), or simply because I myself am blind
C2PA really catches fire and its spread & adoption proceed with (super)exponential rate in the next 12 months, potentially due to a move-in of another big player
Something roughly similar to my fictional announcement above happens, and the INFER moderators decide that it constitutes a YES resolution
Zero research so far regarding provenance schemes other than C2PA
There seems to be at least one more app allowing users to capture C2PA-compliant pictures (and video, too), made by Numbers Protocol:
Numbers Protocol has introduced the Capture App, an ecosystem application that can produce traceable images and verify their origin. The technology framework of Capture App has supported the C2PA project and helped in the development of their standard for image origin marking. [...] In 2021, the C2PA framework was integrated into the Capture App, making it the first blockchain camera that captures pictures and videos that adhere to the C2PA standard.
The reported date (2021) seems strange, since version 1.0 of C2PA was released in late January 2022, and there are not indications of an earlier version (0.x) before 1.0 in the current C2PA pages [update: CAI hints at an "initial publication in 2021".]
FWIW, in the Capture app product page and Apple store entry, there is not any explicit reference to, or mention of, C2PA.
The iPhone version of the app has a current rating of 5.0/5 based on 32 ratings - which is certainly greater that Truepic's Vision Camera (not enough ratings yet to display an aggregate), but still does not seem to indicate any widespread use.
All in all, it does not seem to change what I have reported above in any manner of practical significance.
I think @ctsats has made an excellent point. I looked up the ways in which one can determine the provenance of photos here https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-16-7621-5_15 Multimedia Forensics, the Image Provenance Analysis chapter. According to this 2022 book, providing digital provenance is difficult (but not impossible) unless images and videos created on C2PA-compliant devices or (possibly?) Numbers Protocol.
Why do you think you're right?
There are already several interesting comments and rationales below, but a key angle seems to me to have been largely missed so far, save for a comment by @MrLittleTexas and the rationale of @efosong, so I'll cut straight through the chase:
What is the current (and expected future) availability of C2PA-compliant cameras?
The first (although seemingly outdated) impression from Wikipedia says - practically non-existent:
(Arguably, a Wikipedia page for a project that has not been updated since August 2022 does not exactly imply a project in the verge of conquering the media in the way described by the question here...)
A google search for "c2pa cameras" returns a remarkably poor amount of results, most of which are about:
Indeed, a search in Nikon Z9 reviews and in the product's Amazon page fail to reveal any feature related to C2PA, CAI, provenance, or security.
And that would seem to be all, i.e. practically nothing...
Which seems to leave us to mobile phone cameras & apps only.
Here, everything I could find seems to be centered around a single company, namely Truepic. [see Update #1 below]
---
Truepic is a core ("steering committee") member of the C2PA coalition. IEEE Spectrum hosts a long interview of their VP of technology, Nick Brown, given last February (I would recommend skimming through it, or even reading it in full), where he describes the whole idea and the present status of the company and the related technology in enough detail.
The only Truepic app currently registered in the Apple store is Vision Camera (I could not find anything else for Android either), which, according to my iPhone, "hasn't received enough ratings or reviews to display a summary". It looks like something for the niche areas of insurance claims and underwriting. To the best of my knowledge and research so far, this currently seems to be the only off-the-self app [nope, see Update #1 below] to capture C2PA-compliance photos (although I may be very well missing something - inputs welcome), and it does not currently support videos.
It would seem that the main way Truepic are trying to monetize their C2PA-compliant tech is not through apps they build themselves, but through a software development kit (SDK), which they sell/license to developers, who in turn will be able to integrate the technology to their own apps, so that these apps will be able to use mobile phone cameras to capture C2PA-compliant footage. The SDK product, Truepic Lens, was mentioned byTime as one of the best inventions of 2022. Here's their VP from the interview I linked to above, explaining:
Taking in all these, and trying to think and assess them in the context of a question roughly asking if this tech will go mainstream in the next 12 months, here are my concerns about the Truepic SDK:
Now, I am certainly not an expert on how technologies are adopted and spread and become mainstream and change the status-quo, but from the little I know (or I think I know), the above does not sound exactly like a recipe for a technology that is ready to go mainstream in the degree requested for a YES here...
Are there open source alternatives?
Turns out, the Content Authenticity Initiative (CAI), a precursor to C2PA that seems to still exist autonomously inside the latter, has been developing an open source Rust SDK - but it is still in beta, with their Github repo having received a mere 42 stars so far in its ~1 year of existence, again indicating rather (very) low adoption and interest...
---
It is quite likely that I may be missing something big or significant in the above; but assuming for a moment that I have not, and that the present situation is more or less as I have described, then I really fail to imagine how this could be resolved as Yes, solely due to the actual lack of C2PA-compliant cameras, which does not seem posed to change dramatically in the next 12 months - while it would need to change dramatically for the question to be resolved positively...
---
Let's face it: the news outlets mentioned here do not actually have either a need or an incentive to demand C2PA compliance for content they produce themselves, i.e. content produced by their own reporting staff. At best, I could imagine something like the following fictional/hypothetical announcement by, say, the BBC:
(which, BTW, may imply a potentially more appropriate version of our question here - just sayin'...)
But still, even this would require a wide-enough availability of C2PA-compliant capturing equipment, which is certainly not present now, and it does not seem likely to be present in a 12-month time horizon.
So, I will start with a nominal 10%, although if the picture I have described above is even approximately correct, this may be already too high.
---
Feedback and inputs, complementing and especially contradicting what I have written here, is actively sought and it will be highly appreciated (good forecasting is a team sport, almost by definition).
Why might you be wrong?
Update #1
There seems to be at least one more app allowing users to capture C2PA-compliant pictures (and video, too), made by Numbers Protocol:
The reported date (2021) seems strange, since version 1.0 of C2PA was released in late January 2022, and there are not indications of an earlier version (0.x) before 1.0 in the current C2PA pages [update: CAI hints at an "initial publication in 2021".]
FWIW, in the Capture app product page and Apple store entry, there is not any explicit reference to, or mention of, C2PA.
The iPhone version of the app has a current rating of 5.0/5 based on 32 ratings - which is certainly greater that Truepic's Vision Camera (not enough ratings yet to display an aggregate), but still does not seem to indicate any widespread use.
All in all, it does not seem to change what I have reported above in any manner of practical significance.
I think @ctsats has made an excellent point. I looked up the ways in which one can determine the provenance of photos here https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-16-7621-5_15 Multimedia Forensics, the Image Provenance Analysis chapter. According to this 2022 book, providing digital provenance is difficult (but not impossible) unless images and videos created on C2PA-compliant devices or (possibly?) Numbers Protocol.