Confirmed previous forecast
0.463296
Relative Brier Score
92
Forecasts
43
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 7 | 142 | 92 | 3810 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 137 | 90 | 2156 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 6 | 38 | 15 | 216 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 5 | 64 | 43 | 1750 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
99%
(+1%)
No
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Going to just a Cromwellian 1%. IMHO, @grainmummy said it best:https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/207577
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For yes, it would take just one leader of state who might have enough control over "the Arab street" to sign, believing he will get away with this.
Files
Thank you very much, it is also very nice to hear that from you.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
EU Eyes Huawei Ban in Mobile Networks of Member Countries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/eu-eyes-banning-huawei-from-mobile-networks-of-member-countries
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
87%
(-8%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
10%
(+9%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Following @YJAung given https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/205587
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps Trump's change of direction with China will change things.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Moldova
0%
(-2%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Impressed by the analyses of @olavo_sg here https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/205930
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Normally I don't go to 0% (Cromwell's rule of statistics). However, Russia is becoming exhausted, doesn't need any more war fronts. Moldova and Georgia, however, currently have Russian troops and bases inside their borders, making it easier to invade further.
Files
Interesting criteria as always ☝️🙌
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Still no sign of a new test site having been built to replace the one destroyed by the most recent test, which was of a hydrogen bomb, the biggest explosion ever at that site.
Why might you be wrong?
We might not know of a new site having been built, or North Korea would do like Israel and detonate a nuclear test article in a remote region of the oceans, for example, the south Atlantic.