RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

You quit this question on Jan 2, 2025 09:13AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 19, 2024 01:12PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	3%	4%	-1%	-17%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

You quit this question on Jan 2, 2025 09:14AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2024 11:04PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	18%	-15%	-17%
No	97%	82%	+15%	+17%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

You quit this question on Jan 2, 2025 09:18AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 23, 2024 03:39PM UTC
(12 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+1%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+1%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2025 02:48AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+1%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	87%	96%	-9%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	2%	+8%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 10:16AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026	Dec 21, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026	Dec 21, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 07:46PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	0%	+1%	-2%
No	99%	Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026	Dec 23, 2025	100%	-1%	+2%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 09:41PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 03, 2025 09:45PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026	Jan 3, 2026	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026	Jan 3, 2026	99%	+1%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 07:34PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 02:32PM UTC
(21 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+0%

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel

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