Confirmed previous forecast
-0.125357
Relative Brier Score
946
Forecasts
456
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 8 | 130 | 96 | 3814 |
| Comments | 1 | 4 | 129 | 92 | 2158 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 7 | 35 | 15 | 216 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 52 | 43 | 1750 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
87%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
10%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No new news
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Still no sign of a new test site having been built to replace the one destroyed by the most recent test, which was of a hydrogen bomb, the biggest explosion ever at that site.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We might not know of a new site having been built, or North Korea would do like Israel and detonate a nuclear test article in a remote region of the oceans, for example, the south Atlantic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
99%
(+1%)
No
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Going to just a Cromwellian 1%. IMHO, @grainmummy said it best:https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/207577
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For yes, it would take just one leader of state who might have enough control over "the Arab street" to sign, believing he will get away with this.
Files
Thank you very much, it is also very nice to hear that from you.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
So far there is no news of a new nuclear test site. The forecasters who argue that the new tunnel at the wreakage of the old test site might be used. However, the nuclear fallout likely from using that exploratory tunnel should deter Kim Jong Un.
In addition, like all other nuclear powers, once "enough" data has been gathered, they all have ceased tests. In the olden times, lacking today's computational technologies, the US and USSR conducted many tests, ending in 1992. In the case of North Korea, the last test was a hydrogen bomb, the pinnacle of nuclear explosives, and that nation has access to substantial computational technologies. North Korea's leader is well educated and sane, suggesting that he won't damage his nation with nuclear pollution and won't waste resources now that he can use computational means to design new warheads.
Why might you be wrong?
.