Influenced by @Rene
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Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 89 | 4 | 3821 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 81 | 3 | 2164 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 216 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1750 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
97%
(+10%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(-9%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+1%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing Moldova slightly given @DKC here https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/210273
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I tend to underestimate Russian aggression. Trump's current threats against NATO ally Kingdom of Denmark might be the invitation Putin needs to act against Moldova, which has a weak military, thus a low hanging fruit.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 29, 2026 07:21AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(+1%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
98%
(-1%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China is patient. Highly unlikely within 6 months.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 22, 2026 07:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(+1%)
Yes
Dec 22, 2025 to Jun 22, 2026
98%
(-1%)
No
Dec 22, 2025 to Jun 22, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
As long as Netanyahu remains in power, no chance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Netnayhu loses power, who might succeed him? And how long would it take for one of the listed nations to establish diplomatic relations? What is the carrot or stick?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 19, 2026 11:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 19, 2025 to Jun 19, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 19, 2025 to Jun 19, 2026
Why might you be wrong?
Although China had become expert at wielding soft power, it might take advantage of special circumstances.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 18, 2026 04:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
So far there is no news of a new nuclear test site. The forecasters who argue that the new tunnel at the wreakage of the old test site might be used. However, the nuclear fallout likely from using that exploratory tunnel should deter Kim Jong Un.
In addition, like all other nuclear powers, once "enough" data has been gathered, they all have ceased tests. In the olden times, lacking today's computational technologies, the US and USSR conducted many tests, ending in 1992. In the case of North Korea, the last test was a hydrogen bomb, the pinnacle of nuclear explosives, and that nation has access to substantial computational technologies. North Korea's leader is well educated and sane, suggesting that he won't damage his nation with nuclear pollution and won't waste resources now that he can use computational means to design new warheads.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Following @DKC given https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/214463
Why might you be wrong?
Cromwell would disapprove of my zeroes.