Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000476
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
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Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Aug 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Jul 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
International travel is trending down in 2025, including a 26% decline of Canadian travelers and 17% decline of travelers from Western Europe in March. Travelers from Asia are also 25% below 2019 levels.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unclear what I could be missing here. From a U.S. perspective, I'd be surprised if the number increased this month. There has been some reporting of visitors being detained by immigration enforcement. There could be some cognitive bias due to my news exposure, but if foreign visitors are seeing similar articles, their thoughts of traveling to the United States may be similarly swayed.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This close to the deadline, I think it is highly unlikely a spending agreement will be met. Despite announcements that NATO has agreed to a 5% GDP defense spend, Spain quickly announced that it opted out of the new target.
The administration recently announced that Baltic states have agreed to 5% GDP defense spend. In my view, claiming this as a victory shows they think its unlikely they'll receive the full NATO goal.
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Why might you be wrong?
I'm not aware of any existing pressure points to get this agreement to the finish line before the question closes, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updated based on updated data.
Post mortem: I wonder if wishful thinking got the best of me here.
Why might you be wrong?