173rd
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Curious2025

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 18 165 165 166
Comments 1 9 108 108 108
Questions Forecasted 6 12 33 33 34
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 14 14 15
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Curious2025
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100% (0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

There's conflicting information about the level of progress being made during current peace talks, but on whole reporting leans toward low prospects for success.  

Zelenskyy said yesterday that "no consensus had been reached on key territorial questions," but that progress had been made on other topics. Anonymous US officials said "literally 90%" of the issues between the two warring countries had been solved. (ABC News)

Meanwhile, Putin yesterday said that while the Trump administration had demonstrated readiness for a peaceful resolution, “it is unlikely that this will be possible with the current political elites” in Europe. He also referred to the European leaders as swine, suggesting his continued displeasure with the status of talks. (NBC News)

Taken together, this murky picture suggests that a peace deal is further off than the next two weeks.

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Why might you be wrong?

Zelenskyy said on Monday that Kyiv supported the idea of a ceasefire, in particular for strikes on energy infrastructure, during the Christmas period. So far, Putin has said a ceasefire is possible only as part of a comprehensive peace agreement, but he could change his mind. (Reuters)

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Curious2025
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
100% (+1%)
No
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

There is a lack of meaningful progress toward new diplomatic agreements.

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Why might you be wrong?

Saudi Arabia could come around if Israel agrees to a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state. (Fortune)

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Why do you think you're right?

Lowering due to passage of time; previous rationale applies.

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Why might you be wrong?

A verbal commitment to provide HIMARS is still possible if talks fail.  

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