Forecasted Questions
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2025 04:09PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 17, 2025 04:09PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 70% | 79% | -9% | +34% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 55% | 55% | +0% | +22% |