updated data
4.764468
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-12%)
Yes
92%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
updated data
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+98%)
Less than or equal to 1
2%
(-8%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-80%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
short term left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
weather is unpredictable
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump is not known for going into military action.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The conflict could further escalate
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
the trend from the last year should hold
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is making vacation maybe too scary for some
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
numbers
Files
Why might you be wrong?
numbers
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
iran needs stability
Files
Why might you be wrong?
israel conflict
Files
Why do you think you're right?
AI
Why might you be wrong?
AI