-
-0.226892
Relative Brier Score
100
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 150 | 100 | 485 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 37 | 34 | 39 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 9 | 42 | 29 | 69 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
U.S. Entity
76%
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 22, 2025 to Apr 22, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 22, 2025 to Apr 22, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
-
Why might you be wrong?
-