-
-0.326094
Relative Brier Score
490
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 137 | 105 | 490 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 40 | 37 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 69 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Emerging Technology,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Africa,
Open RAN,
Economic Debt
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-25%)
Yes
85%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
99%
(+1%)
No
Nov 21, 2025 to May 21, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
U.S. Entity
76%
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
-
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
Why do you think you're right?
-
Why might you be wrong?
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