Faded_Oracle

Even if we assume there's a high probability of a Russian-sponsored attack of one kind or another, directly attributing it to the Russian government will be a bear - a bear on a unicycle, no less. Putin's primary focus is Ukraine for now. Lashing out against a NATO country would be pretty pointless and self-destructive. 

Passage of time. 

There don't seem to be any factors predisposing Egypt to meet the criteria listed. With inflation on the downswing and Egypt servicing its debts, catastrophe seems less likely than it did at the beginning of the year.