Confirmed previous forecast
0.053763
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
90%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
porque las RFS no podrían ocupar todo el territorio por la obligación del derecho internacional.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
porque la presencia internacional no ejerce la suficiente presión para frenar el conflicto.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is likely that such legislation will be enacted before June 1, 2029, as governments recognize the urgency of establishing regulatory boundaries in response to the rapid advancement of AI technologies.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
However, this prediction might prove inaccurate if strict regulation becomes unnecessary, as companies could develop sufficient internal controls and accountability mechanisms to ensure the security of their AI models without government intervention.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Lithuania is facing an increase in hybrid attacks, including drone incursions, illegal migration facilitated by Belarus and Russia, border incidents, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. Military exercises such as Zapad near Lithuania’s borders, along with the growing Russian military presence in Belarus, raise concerns about preparedness for a possible aggression, although current intelligence indicates that there are no immediate plans for an invasion.
Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine has severely depleted its military capabilities, with over 350,000 troops lost and massive casualties sustained. The military is struggling to replenish forces, needing large bonuses for recruitment, and most equipment production is being consumed by the Ukraine conflict. Russia would need 4-6 years after the Ukraine war ends to rebuild sufficient capacity for another major offensive
Why might you be wrong?
Furthermore, Russia’s ability to conduct a large-scale military operation beyond Ukraine is significantly constrained. The war in Ukraine has exhausted a substantial portion of Russia’s manpower and material resources, forcing Moscow to prioritize force regeneration and domestic stability. With most military production focused on sustaining the war effort, Russia lacks the operational capacity to open a new front in the near term. Estimates indicating a 4–6 year recovery period after the end of the Ukraine war further reduce the likelihood of short- or medium-term aggression against Lithuania.