Confirmed previous forecast
-0.056113
Relative Brier Score
211
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 19 | 264 | 211 | 998 |
| Comments | 0 | 6 | 106 | 93 | 338 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 19 | 52 | 39 | 165 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 89 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-90%)
Yes
100%
(+90%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Woops! I appear to have inverted the correct judgmenet last time around, This is obviously lower than it should be, however bear with me as I correct the imbalance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The US relationship with China is complex, but it is obviously incentivized to retard the progress of the Chinese AI agency.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Moldova
2%
(+2%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is seemingly shifting focus to Armenia, now that it has failed to intervene in the Moldovan election. [1]
[1] https://caliber.az/en/post/russia-shifts-focus-to-armenia-after-regional-setbacks-moldovan-president-warns
[1] https://caliber.az/en/post/russia-shifts-focus-to-armenia-after-regional-setbacks-moldovan-president-warns
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there is a sudden reversal in the posiition of the Georgian government, it is definitely plausible that Russia would intervene to prop them up.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent movements seem to be towards supporting Ukraine in its development and deployment of Flamingo.
Update - The US has just announced it will be transferring Tomahawk to Ukraine [1]. Not immediately obvious whether this will decrease the odds of European missile supply because the US has green lit the idea or....
[1[ https://united24media.com/latest-news/pentagon-reportedly-approves-potential-tomahawk-missile-transfer-to-ukraine-pending-trumps-decision-13014
Files
Why might you be wrong?
...Decrease it because there will be less need if Ukraine has tomahoks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The gap is currently E18.4b as of the end of August. It is almost certain that it will increase and therefore fall into one of the two latter categories. On current trends alone it is unlikely that it will fall into category 5 (E30b or more) however if it does it will be because of a sudden change i.e. the US drastically reducing its commitment further or the EU significantly increasing its. Neither of these seem particularly likely, with a number of GOP senators highly supportive of Ukraine, and a Europe facing fianncial difficulties.
Why might you be wrong?
A successful push to increase the EU contribution or (perhaps more likely) strong-arming from JD Vance might result in the pace of the gap widening enough to push us into the five bucket, but it seems unlikely.