Given there have been two tests in January, one would expect the rate to continue. The new missiles highly likely require additional live fire tests. The distraction of the US means there are less likely to be negative consequences, and even less likely there would be pre-emptive warning not to engage in any tests. The purges of top military officials in China likely also removes a restraining effect.
0.051382
Relative Brier Score
57
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 9 | 248 | 9 | 1049 |
| Comments | 3 | 3 | 96 | 3 | 346 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 168 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 89 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is an unable geopolitical environment, and the US is clearly looking for some sort of 'win' internationally. The DPRK regime may reasonably anticipate that further tests will draw that attention upon them and wish to avoid it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are currently no mechanisms in place by which the US can dislodge her, and she appears to be proceeding with caution, so is unlikely to trigger a fresh decapitation operation from the US (so far).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is of course always possible that she is dislodged by internal intrigue, rather than external forces, however I would assume the regime would prefer to build upon whatever apparent legitimacy she has.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With the current pace of progress (the apparent lack of any massive leap towards AGI) it would appear prima facie unlikely that it will happen within this window. Moreover, the window being quite short, it seems likely that if a nation were to develop AGI it might seek to obscure that fact until some of the implications were explored further.
Why might you be wrong?
Technological progress is often a bit spasmodic; it didn't seem likely that DeepSeek could be developed without access to western microchips, however China achieved it anyway. It is always possible for AI researchers to have achieve a sudden and surprising break through.