38th
Accuracy Rank

Hobbes

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2025 Season Stats

-0.056133

Relative Brier Score

230

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 19 19 255 230 1017
Comments 2 2 106 95 340
Questions Forecasted 19 19 50 39 165
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 89
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Hobbes made their 22nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Hobbes made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0% (0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0% (0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
65% (-20%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
35% (+20%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?

Hedging slightly. While I'm pleased that the consensus is moving in my direction as we reach the end of the year, the sudden shift of apparent US attitude towards Ukraine (and the additional pressure on key European partners to shoulder additional burdens finanically speaking) to stave off a Ukraine government fiscal collapse means that tbere might be additional allocations/pledges before year end.

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Why might you be wrong?

Perhaps I should stick to my guns! One to watch.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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Files
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