79th
Accuracy Rank

Hobbes

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 1% 6%
Armenia 2% 2%
Georgia 2% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:17PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 3%
No 99% 97%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:19PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 9%
No 100% 91%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 01:56PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 98%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 01:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 01:58PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 3%
Latvia 1% 2%
Lithuania 1% 3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 02:02PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026 Jan 12, 2026 0%
No 99% Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026 Jan 12, 2026 100%
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