inflation and security
-0.539464
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
Yes
41%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
ww3
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
Yes
63%
No
Why do you think you're right?
r
Files
Why might you be wrong?
inflation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
after the agreemnet with the hostages this can be correct
Files
Why might you be wrong?
war in the middle east
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
Less than $21.0 billion
30%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
25%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
10%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
7%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
l
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
58%
Less than or equal to 4,499
35%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
3%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
2%
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
d
Files
Why might you be wrong?
cuz pepole have less money for doctoreates
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
Yes
44%
No
Why do you think you're right?
scale
Files
Why might you be wrong?
russian war
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
Why do you think you're right?
Because all available FDA databases and credible industry sources consistently show zero FDA-cleared or FDA-approved medical devices that incorporate LLM functionality, and the FDA itself has publicly acknowledged this gap while exploring future tagging mechanisms.
Why might you be wrong?
Because an LLM-enabled device could already be under review or authorized very recently without broad public reporting yet, or a device might use an embedded LLM in a limited way that hasn’t been explicitly labeled as such in public documentation.