255th
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Javretro2000

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) -0.00008
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.001522
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.0017
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.14976
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000137
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000628
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.001796
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? 0.554348
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.001142
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.0038
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000937
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