Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2025 02:11PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Mar 02, 2025 02:11PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 6% | -1% | -1% |
| Armenia | 6% | 2% | +4% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2025 09:57PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Mar 19, 2025 09:57PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 22% | 0% | +22% | -12% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 66% | 0% | +66% | -13% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 12% | 2% | +10% | -16% |
| Not before 2026 | 0% | 98% | -98% | +42% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 24, 2025 01:30PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Mar 24, 2025 01:30PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 7% | +11% | +1% |
| No | 82% | 93% | -11% | -1% |