Confirmed previous forecast
0.023592
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 23, 2025 02:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(-5%)
Yes
Apr 23, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026
87%
(+5%)
No
Apr 23, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
A cyber attack may still take place but a kinetic effect is unlikely due to potential attribution and retribution from the rest of the world.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia may become desperate, depending on the outcome of the cease fire with Ukraine.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 7, 2025 01:03AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-5%)
Yes
97%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
No real change in stability of Russia even with ongoing discussions with Ukraine and US
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He becomes incapacitated or is removed by force
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-8%)
Yes
94%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent trade war has shifted economic values of companies
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A significant push for AI chips with preorders could make the value skyrocket
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(0%)
Yes
82%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
22%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
66%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
12%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
0%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
It will likely take the next few months (3-4 months after mid-march) to broker a fair deal for a cease fire. Russia seems to be only interested in regaining land and Ukraine seems reluctant to acquiesce to this deal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine may be forced to make a deal from outside pressure from the US to make a deal sooner. Ukraine may have demands from Russia that may take months to negotiate.
Files