Kel_vin

It is highly certain that the EU will import significantly more than 19 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in the second half of 2025 (July through December).

While a precise final figure for the second half of 2025 is not yet available, forecasts and historical context make an import volume of 19 bcm extremely low for a six-month period.

Here is the context based on available data and projections:

1. The Scale of EU Gas Demand

 * Total Annual Imports: The EU imported approximately 275 bcm of gas and LNG in the full year 2024.

 * Seasonal Demand: Gas demand in the EU is always much higher in the second half of the year (H2) than the first half (H1), as H2 includes the crucial, gas-intensive winter heating season (October to December).

 * Storage Refill: The summer months (H2 includes July, August, and September) are critical for importing gas to refill storage facilities, which were at 83\% capacity by October 1, 2025, according to ENTSOG. This requires substantial summer imports.

2. Quarterly and Half-Yearly Context

 * Even if the EU's total annual imports continue to decline towards the 2030 target of around 233 bcm, the imports for the single six-month period of H2 2025 would likely be well over 100 bcm due to the high demand for heating and storage injection.

 * A figure of 19 bcm is only a fraction of what the EU consumes in a single quarter during a mild winter, let alone the six-month period covering the peak demand season.

No they won't cause:

(a) SAF has Air and Artillery Superiority

(b)Loss of Key infrastructure- The SAF recently successfully retook the Khartoum international airport,the presidential palace and other strategic bases significantly degrading the RSF operations capability 

(c)Lack of internal civilian legitimacy

(d)International and Regional legitimacy