Confirmed previous forecast
0.012064
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 29 | 18 | 284 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 59 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2025 03:17AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2025 01:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 20, 2025 to Feb 20, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Aug 20, 2025 to Feb 20, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Changing my forecast due to latest readings
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden change in the market
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
A new incentive in the area could push the trend