Confirmed previous forecast
1.228968
Relative Brier Score
56
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 30 | 20 | 286 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 59 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 23, 2025 to May 23, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
For this question, data from recent years shows that percentage has not been obtained.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new incentive in the area could push the trend
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2025 03:17AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2025 to Mar 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
