168th
Accuracy Rank

Luis-Alberto-Palacios

Luis Alberto Palacios
About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 20, 2025 02:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 30% 12%
No 70% 88%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 20, 2025 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 48%
No 80% 52%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 20, 2025 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 23% 15%
No 77% 85%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username