34th

Accuracy Rank

Luis-Alberto-Palacios

Luis Alberto Palacios

About:

Luis Alberto Palacios Pargas is a strategic foresight and analytics professional with a background in Economics and a Master’s degree in Prospective and Strategic Studies. With extensive experience in forecasting, decision intelligence, and supply chain analytics, Luis currently serves as Forecasting & Analytics Manager at Panduit Corporation. His career spans roles in demand planning, S&OP, and strategic metrics development, including impactful contributions to public sector initiatives and research in foresight and innovation. He is passionate about applying futures thinking to business, finance, and technology to help organizations navigate uncertainty and make robust strategic decisions.

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Star Commenter - Oct 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 05:40PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	10%	+20%	-2%
No	70%	90%	-20%	+2%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2025 05:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	47%	-27%	+1%
No	80%	53%	+27%	-1%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 03:54PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	13%	+11%	-38%
No	77%	88%	-11%	+38%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	7%	+58%	+0%
No	35%	93%	-58%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	1%	+2%	-1%
No	97%	Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026	Dec 25, 2025	99%	-2%	+1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	31%	3%	+28%	+0%
No	69%	97%	-28%	+0%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	10%	+60%	-5%
No	30%	90%	-60%	+5%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	40%	4%	+36%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	60%	96%	-36%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	65%	79%	-14%	-1%
Non-U.S. Entity	25%	55%	-30%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	0%	84%	-84%	+4%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	16%	11%	+5%	-5%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	32%	3%	+29%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	42%	2%	+40%	+1%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	10%	0%	+10%	+0%