168th

Accuracy Rank

Luis-Alberto-Palacios

Luis Alberto Palacios

About:

Luis Alberto Palacios Pargas is a strategic foresight and analytics professional with a background in Economics and a Master’s degree in Prospective and Strategic Studies. With extensive experience in forecasting, decision intelligence, and supply chain analytics, Luis currently serves as Forecasting & Analytics Manager at Panduit Corporation. His career spans roles in demand planning, S&OP, and strategic metrics development, including impactful contributions to public sector initiatives and research in foresight and innovation. He is passionate about applying futures thinking to business, finance, and technology to help organizations navigate uncertainty and make robust strategic decisions.

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Star Commenter - Oct 2025

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Forecasted Questions

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	7%	+58%	+0%
No	35%	93%	-58%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	31%	3%	+28%	+0%
No	69%	97%	-28%	+0%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	65%	86%	-21%	+6%
Non-U.S. Entity	25%	56%	-31%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	0%	94%	-94%	+14%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	16%	5%	+11%	-11%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	32%	1%	+31%	-3%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	42%	0%	+42%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	10%	0%	+10%	+0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	41%	7%	+34%	+0%
No	59%	93%	-34%	+0%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	2%	+33%	+1%
No	65%	98%	-33%	-1%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	20%	+50%	-2%
No	30%	80%	-50%	+2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	15%	3%	+12%	+0%
Latvia	25%	2%	+23%	+0%
Lithuania	15%	2%	+13%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 03:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	9%	5%	+4%	+0%
Armenia	8%	2%	+6%	+0%
Georgia	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	5%	1%	+4%	+0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	82%	3%	+79%	+1%
No	18%	97%	-79%	-1%