Mariana_DiazG

Mariana Diaz
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Fellow at UNICRI - United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? -0.001958
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000967
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.000291
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.000211
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? -0.058451
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.084834
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) 0.002773
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.002143
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.003475
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? 0.0
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? -0.001628
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.001568
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.005846
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.008564
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website? -0.005865
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.007771
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? 0.002535
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? 0.033299
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023) -0.000064
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022? -0.005578
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