Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?

Started Apr 07, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, “secession” for the Republic of Srpska may include the formation of an independent state or joining the Republic of Serbia. This question will be resolved using credible open source media reporting.

In October of 2021, Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency and the president of the Republic of Srpska, announced that Srpska would be withdrawing from key Bosnian institutions, including the Army (Al Jazeera). Since then, he has continued to spark secessionist flames with nationalist rhetoric (Politico). Growing tensions between Bosnia’s ethnic groups and Srpska's deep ties to Moscow have international observers worried that escalation of this political crisis could lead to the collapse of the Dayton Peace Accords and Russian intervention (Foreign Policy). Previously, in a direct challenge to the Bosnian Constitutional Court and Dayton Accords, the Republic of Srpska held a referendum to establish the Day of Republika Srpska, a holiday celebrating the Republic of Srpska’s 1992 declaration of independence (Politico). 

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Question clarification
Issued on 11/11/22 03:45pm
A clarification about the scoring of this question was issued in error. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.96%
No 99.04%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 493
Average for questions older than 6 months: 224
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014215
2.
-0.009978
3.
-0.009078
4.
-0.008587
5.
-0.008287

Consensus Trend

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