There appear to be numerous candidates that could pop at any time, especially Malaysia. The EU CBAM seems like a significant incentive for countries to do this.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We've seen some level of a conservative mood shift in the last year or two, which could make countries less likely to do this.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Timeline is pretty short
- SAF now has the defensive advantage. Base rate of armed groups re-taking a capital after losing it, in this time frame, has to be really low.
- RC requires full control, which is an even higher bar
- Both sides have external backers, which pushes the situation toward status quo
- Appears to be a little momentum for a humanitarian ceasefire
Files
Why might you be wrong?
When these things shift, they can shift quickly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think the timeline for this is just too short. I didn't see anything about companies already seeking approval and typical approval for a de novo review is apparently 9-18 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Obviously lots of interest and momentum behind LLM's broadly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(-39%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
90%
(+39%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on latest readings
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
47%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
51%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Yes
99%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Matching the crowd. Not looking likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
- Security council gridlock alone probably makes this very unlikely.
- US pulling back financially & otherwise on world-policing.
- Timeline is relatively short here
- The active conflicts that come to mind seem to be in fairly intense phases, not on the verge of fighting stopping (e.g. Ukraine, Sudan)
- Gaza plans seem to focus more on Arab countries sending peacekeeping force, rather than the UN
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe the current mission to Haiti is overhauled to be an official UN peacekeeping mission.