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- Timeline is pretty short
- SAF now has the defensive advantage. Base rate of armed groups re-taking a capital after losing it, in this time frame, has to be really low.
- RC requires full control, which is an even higher bar
- Both sides have external backers, which pushes the situation toward status quo
- Appears to be a little momentum for a humanitarian ceasefire
When these things shift, they can shift quickly
I think the timeline for this is just too short. I didn't see anything about companies already seeking approval and typical approval for a de novo review is apparently 9-18 months.
Obviously lots of interest and momentum behind LLM's broadly.
Updating based on latest readings
Matching the crowd. Not looking likely.
I can see there being impetus for this given the increased American isolationism (maybe? who knows? seems to change on a whim). But the timeline is relatively short to work out a serious pact and there are so many historical rivalries within the region.
A shared sense of vulnerability could drive countries to make it happen. Also, maybe something gets formed as part of the end of the war in Gaza?
Why do you think you're right?
There appear to be numerous candidates that could pop at any time, especially Malaysia. The EU CBAM seems like a significant incentive for countries to do this.
Why might you be wrong?
We've seen some level of a conservative mood shift in the last year or two, which could make countries less likely to do this.