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Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Started Mar 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999. However, Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian). He swiftly squashed domestic criticism and protests from Russian citizens, but it is unclear how his hold on power will be affected by a prolonged war or the devastating economic and financial sanctions that have been levied against him, Russian oligarchs, and the Russian country (Al Jazeera, The New York Times)   

This question will be resolved using the list of Heads of State, Heads of Government and Ministers for Foreign Affairs maintained by the UN Protocol and Liaison Service.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.28%
No 97.72%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 348
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 1512
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.015296
2.
-0.014764
3.
-0.014725
5.
-0.01267

Consensus Trend

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