Confirmed previous forecast
0.148304
Relative Brier Score
41
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 658 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 334 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 132 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 61 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 19, 2025 05:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027
85%
(+5%)
No
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine is going to be reliant on electricity and gas imports this winter. Russia has already destroyed over half its generating capacity.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin chickens out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The last thing the west or Israel need are a chaotic Egypt now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Far right Israelis
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 19, 2025 06:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Aug 19, 2025 to Feb 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Gaza humanitarian crisis and the coalition government members
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Miracles can happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Czech election is a wildcard, as is French and British government finance situations. We know Spain won't spend the money, neither will Hungary under the Orban administration. However Orban might lose his next election
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The EU like NATO has a way of muddling through
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 20, 2025 10:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Jul 20, 2025 to Jan 20, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files