Forecasted Questions
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 19, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 10% | 4% | +6% | -4% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 19, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 93% | +1% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2025 05:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 19, 2025 05:32PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 98% | -1% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2025 05:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 19, 2025 05:35PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027 | Jan 19, 2026 | 6% | +9% | +1% |
| No | 85% | Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027 | Jan 19, 2026 | 94% | -9% | -1% |