Confirmed previous forecast
2.370452
Relative Brier Score
47
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 663 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 336 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 132 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 61 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 25, 2026 02:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 25, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 25, 2025 to Jun 25, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 25, 2025 to Jun 25, 2027
85%
(0%)
No
Dec 25, 2025 to Jun 25, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Russia are currently losing in the Sahel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia's economic situation forces a more ambitious push
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt's currency has risen in value and stablised over the past year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Violence breaks out
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 19, 2025 05:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 19, 2026 05:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-5%)
Yes
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027
85%
(+5%)
No
Oct 19, 2025 to Apr 19, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine is going to be reliant on electricity and gas imports this winter. Russia has already destroyed over half its generating capacity.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin chickens out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The last thing the west or Israel need are a chaotic Egypt now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Far right Israelis
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files