RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 04:06PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	83%	18%	+65%	-49%
No	17%	82%	-65%	+49%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	5%	0%	+5%	+0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	44%	1%	+43%	-6%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	30%	6%	+24%	-22%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	18%	52%	-34%	+7%
€30 billion or more	3%	41%	-38%	+21%

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 09:33PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	1%	+9%	+0%
No	90%	99%	-9%	+0%

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