It seems likely the war will be coming to a close soon, as both sides' military forces are running out of steam and need the conflict to end one way or another. With that, the coalition of the willing is the side that ukraine largely trusts, relying on U.S. military would leave them vulnerable should they extract or limit defense.
-0.076133
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
1
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Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia is able to generate more manpower and doesn't committ to ending the war, hoping for the exhaustion of Ukraine when it is unlikely.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Ethiopia and Sudan are likely contenders for this to occur, with the latter being engulfed in a war that leaves them extremely vulnerable with few backers of the SAF. and Ethiopia's PM is extremely unpopular both domestically and abroad, with efforts to coup already cropping up
Why might you be wrong?
Sudan stablizes as UAE pulls out of conflict, and Ethiopia is able to secure major investments in military or social spending on populace that breeds goodwill.