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New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
12%
(0%)
61-90 days
16%
(0%)
91 days or more
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 4, 2025 02:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
12%
(0%)
61-90 days
16%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 4, 2025 09:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 4, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Modi's presence at the Tianjin SCO summit and his statement that " relations with China have moved in a meaningful direction," adding that “there is a peaceful environment at the borders after disengagement," suggests that regional tensions will not increase significantly in the next month.
sources: https://apnews.com/article/shanghai-cooperation-organization-china-us-asia-rivalry-37d58d94f70814c8e7a23721997abc2b; https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinas-xi-and-indias-modi-vow-to-resolve-border-differences-at-a-meeting-in-tianjin/ar-AA1LzUdw?ocid=BingNewsSerp
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Why might you be wrong?
Local skirmishes might continue - although they would likely not be reported or would be suppressed in the media to maintain a positive China- India relationship.
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